The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a season-defining悬崖, after a heartbreaking 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, November 27, 2024, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Quarterback Patrick Lavon Mahomes II, the three-time NFL MVP, didn’t mince words afterward: "You’ve got to win every game now — and hope that’s enough." With their record now 6-6, the Chiefs are officially outside the AFC playoff picture, and their chances of making the postseason have plummeted from 63% to just 47% according to ESPN Analytics. Independent modelers at PlayoffStatus.com put it even lower — 44% — with less than 1% likelihood of claiming the top seed in the conference. This isn’t just a setback. It’s a reckoning.
When Greatness Isn’t Enough
Mahomes threw four touchdown passes with zero interceptions — a stat line he’d never lost with before. In 12 previous games where he posted those numbers, the Chiefs won every single one. That perfect record? Gone. The Cowboys, led by Dak Prescott’s clutch fourth-quarter drive and a game-sealing interception by cornerback Kelvin Joseph, exploited Kansas City’s late-game lapses. The Chiefs led 28-24 with under three minutes left. Then came the collapse: a missed field goal, a failed fourth-down conversion, and finally, a 17-yard touchdown pass to CeeDee Lamb with 38 seconds left. The crowd erupted. The Chiefs’ sideline fell silent.Consistency? That’s the Problem
Just four days earlier, the Chiefs had pulled off their most dramatic win of the season — overcoming an 11-point deficit in the final quarter to beat the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 in overtime at Arrowhead Stadium. Fans were buzzing. The team looked like a contender. But then came Thanksgiving. And it wasn’t an anomaly. It was a pattern. "We can beat anybody," Mahomes said in his post-game presser, voice steady but weary. "But we’ve shown we can lose to anybody. We’ve got to be consistent for four quarters — especially when you play good teams and they have a good offense." The numbers back him up. The Chiefs have wins by 31 points (vs. Las Vegas Raiders) and 21 points (vs. Washington Commanders). They’ve also lost by 13 (to the New York Giants) and 7 (to the Buffalo Bills). Their offense is electric. Their defense? Capable of shutting down anyone — or giving up 31 points to a Cowboys team that entered the game ranked 24th in scoring. It’s not talent. It’s focus. It’s discipline. It’s the inability to lock in when the stakes are highest.
The Road Ahead: Five Games, Zero Margin for Error
The Chiefs’ remaining schedule is brutal — and entirely within the AFC. Five games. All must be wins. No exceptions.- December 7, 2024: Houston Texans (home, 8:20 pm EST)
- December 14, 2024: Los Angeles Chargers (home, 1:00 pm EST)
- December 21, 2024: Tennessee Titans (away, 1:00 pm EST)
- December 25, 2024: Denver Broncos (home, 8:15 pm EST)
- January 4, 2025: Las Vegas Raiders (away, TBD)
History Doesn’t Care About Talent — Only Results
This is the most dangerous season for the Chiefs since 2017 — the last time they missed the playoffs. Head coach Andy Reid, 66, has built a dynasty: 129 wins since 2013, three Super Bowl titles, and a legacy of resilience. But even legends can’t coach around inconsistency. The Chiefs’ front office, led by Chairman and CEO Clark Hunt, has spent the last two years assembling one of the most expensive rosters in NFL history. Now, they’re watching it unravel. The AFC playoff picture is a bloodbath. The Bills, Ravens, Chargers, and Browns are all at 7-4. The Texans, Dolphins, and Steelers sit at 6-5. The Chiefs are tied with them — but hold no tiebreakers. One loss means falling behind. Two losses? Likely eliminated.
What’s Next?
The Chiefs’ next practice session, scheduled for Friday, November 29, will be the most important of the season. No more half-hearted drills. No more mental lapses. The coaching staff must simplify the playbook. The defense must stop giving up big plays on third down. And Mahomes? He’ll need to play like a man who knows his legacy is on the line. This isn’t about whether they can win. It’s about whether they can stay focused long enough to win five times in a row — against teams that will be desperate, hungry, and playing their best football of the year.Frequently Asked Questions
What are the Kansas City Chiefs’ current playoff odds after the Thanksgiving loss?
According to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs’ playoff probability dropped from 63% to 47% after the loss to the Cowboys. Independent modelers at PlayoffStatus.com estimate a 44% chance — down from 57% the week prior. To make the playoffs, they must win all five remaining games, which is statistically unlikely but not impossible — only three teams in NFL history have made the playoffs after starting 6-6 and winning their final five games.
Has Patrick Mahomes ever lost a game with four touchdowns and no interceptions before?
No. Before the Thanksgiving loss, Mahomes had started 12 games with at least four touchdown passes and zero interceptions — and the Chiefs won every single one. That perfect 12-0 record, dating back to his 2018 rookie season as a full-time starter, ended in Arlington. The Cowboys’ defense held the Chiefs to just 12 yards on their final three drives, making it the first time Mahomes’ elite efficiency didn’t translate to victory.
How does the AFC playoff picture look as of late November 2024?
As of November 28, 2024, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cleveland Browns all sit at 7-4. The Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-5 — tied with the Chiefs. The Chiefs hold no tiebreakers over any of them, meaning they can’t afford a single loss. The seventh and final AFC playoff spot is likely to come down to the final week.
Why is this season so inconsistent for the Chiefs?
The Chiefs’ defense has been the issue — ranked 21st in yards allowed and 25th in points per game. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance but lack discipline in critical moments. Offensively, they’re elite, but they’ve struggled to close games when opponents adjust. Coaching adjustments have been slow, and key players like linebacker Nick Bolton and cornerback Trent McDuffie have battled injuries, limiting the team’s ability to sustain pressure.
What happens if the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
Missing the playoffs would be a seismic shock to the franchise’s dynasty narrative. It would raise serious questions about Andy Reid’s ability to adapt, the front office’s roster construction, and whether Mahomes’ peak is beginning to decline. It could trigger major changes in the defensive staff, free-agent signings, and even draft strategy in 2025. For a team that’s won three of the last four Super Bowls, a 6-10 season would be considered a failure.
Is there any historical precedent for a team like this making the playoffs?
Yes — but rarely. The 2011 Seattle Seahawks went 7-9 and made the playoffs due to a weak NFC West. The 2010 Kansas City Chiefs themselves went 10-6 and made it as a wild card after starting 2-4. More recently, the 2022 Tennessee Titans won their final five games to sneak in at 9-8. But none of those teams were coming off three Super Bowl appearances. The pressure, expectations, and scrutiny are unlike anything the Chiefs have faced in the Mahomes era.
